Welcome!

Welcome to the TSP Trader Blog. As an employee of our proud Federal government, I am (like many of you reading this) eligible to contribute to my own retirement through the Thrift Savings Plan.

Similar to a 401(k) in the real world, this program allows military members and federal employees to contribute pre income tax funds to a savings account. Although lacking the sophistication of some 401(k) fund setups, the TSP system offers five basic fund choices and some targeted "retirement year" funds. The best aspect of the TSP program is that the member may reallocate funds as often as desired and without transfer fees.

This program highlights both the best and the worst of our culture. On one hand, retirement saving is American self-sufficiency and resourcefulness at its finest. On the other hand, our national financial literacy is at an all time low - and most who contribute don't have a clue how to allocate their savings to the various funds.

Clearly, those who plan ahead by contributing to their personal TSP account are better off than those who don't save at all. But how should one allocate or reallocate savings between the fund choices? Obviously, some funds are much more volatile - at times, growing significantly more than others... at other times, stagnating or even losing significant value. Apparently, being in the right fund(s) at appropriate times could be radically more profitable than: (A) Blindly throwing money into a random choice of funds - or even worse - (B) Being in the wrong fund(s) at the wrong times. Most guidance you can find is tied to the panacea "you need time, not timing" - otherwise known as "hold and hope." The rest of the advice is spasmodically emotional.

I decided that wasn't good enough for me. As an electrical engineer by training and a fighter pilot by profession, my approach to life has always been to ask the question: "how can this be done better/faster/with more efficiency/and less risk?" I like to learn, and I like to read books. I also like to build computer models of complex systems. The point of this blog isn't to brag about me, so that's as far as I'll go with my resume.

What is the point of this blog? I've found that in any work environment, there's always at least one "self professed finance guru." A few really are smart. Unfortunately, most are just parrots for something they heard but couldn't really explain or apply. There's so much bad information out there - with the potential to really hurt people. This is the serious money we're talking about - not cash to play for a weekend in Vegas.

I know, this isn't the only blog of it's kind. My goal is that it will be significantly different - direct, simple, and specific. Here's what I'll provide:

• Overall market risk assessment
  
• Fund weighting recommendation
• Contingency gameplans

This blog is intended provide a profitable example of educated choices. I hope you find my blog interesting and educational, but most importantly - profitable.

- Divot